Chapter 7

Two paths to retirement. Run them both.

Same starting capital. Same monthly contribution. Same lifestyle. Two completely different strategies for what to actually do with the money. This calculator runs them side-by-side so you can see — with your own numbers — which one leaves your estate larger.

The two strategies

📊 Traditional

Stocks · Sell-as-you-go

Save into a diversified index fund (S&P 500 historical CAGR ~9%). At retirement, sell shares each year to fund living expenses, paying long-term capital gains tax on every sale. Portfolio drains over time. Whatever's left at death passes to heirs at a stepped-up basis.

📦 Buy / Borrow / Die · BTC

Bitcoin · Borrow-as-you-go

Save into Bitcoin (15-year CAGR ~60%; 15% used here as a conservative forward assumption). At retirement, borrow against your BTC each year to fund living expenses. No selling, no capital gains tax, ever. BTC keeps appreciating. Estate passes to heirs tax-free at stepped-up basis with debt paid off from collateral. Full breakdown →

Run your numbers

Both strategies use the same shared inputs (your age, savings, lifestyle). The strategy-specific cards below let you tune the assumptions for each. Results update live.

About you (shared inputs)

20 years to retirement
Default 7% — M2 money supply growth, not CPI. Why →

📊 Traditional strategy assumptions

9% = long-run S&P 500 CAGR (nominal).
23.8% = federal LTCG (20%) + NIIT (3.8%). Add state if applicable.

📦 BBD-with-Bitcoin assumptions

15-yr historical CAGR is ~60%. 15% is a deliberately conservative forward assumption.
Bitcoin-backed loans typically 8–14% (Ledn, Unchained, Strike).
Calculator warns if your LTV crosses this in any year.

📊 Traditional · Stocks + sell-as-you-go

Net estate at end of plan (today's $)
Nest egg at retirement (nominal)
Portfolio value at end of plan
Lifetime tax paid (real)
Years portfolio lasts

📦 BBD · Bitcoin + borrow-as-you-go

Net estate at end of plan (today's $)
BTC value at retirement (nominal)
BTC value at end of plan
Debt outstanding at end
Final LTV
Lifetime tax paid
$0 — loans aren't income
Calculating…
◆ Reading these numbers

"Net estate" is shown in today's dollars. That's what matters.

Nominal future dollars look enormous because compounding makes any number look huge over 50+ years. The "net estate" figure on each card is converted back to today's purchasing power using your inflation rate. It's the real answer to: "How much would my heirs receive, in dollars I currently understand?"

The traditional strategy's lifetime tax bill is also shown in real dollars. That's wealth that left your family permanently and went to the federal government. Under BBD, that number is zero because borrowing isn't income — and at death, the stepped-up basis erases the gains entirely.

The cost of waiting — same $500/month, three start ages
All three contribute to age 65 at a 9% annual return. The dark portion is what they put in. The orange portion is what compounding gave them.
A 10-year head start more than doubles the final number. Two head starts produces 7x the result. Time is the variable nothing else can replace.

Three knobs that change everything

If your retirement number doesn't work, only three levers actually matter. Most people only touch one.

Time

The most powerful variable, and the one you can't get back. Five extra years of compounding can roughly double your final number. Start now, even if the amount is small.

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Contribution

Doubling your monthly contribution doesn't double your nest egg — it does much more, because each new dollar gets the same compounding runway. This is the only lever fully under your control.

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Asset selection

A 9% portfolio doubles every ~8 years. A 20% portfolio doubles every ~3.8. What you own — and whether it can be borrowed against efficiently — is the single biggest decision you'll make.

◆ Honest caveats on this comparison

The math favors BBD-with-BTC. Reality is messier.

Bitcoin's 60% historical CAGR is a curve from a tiny base. Forward returns will be lower as the asset matures. The default 20% assumption is intentionally conservative, but pick whatever number you actually believe.

BBD requires discipline and a healthy collateral cushion. Margin calls have wiped out leveraged BTC holders multiple times. Stay well below your liquidation LTV — even when "safe" math suggests you could borrow more.

The traditional path is more legible to most people. Index funds in a 401k require zero ongoing thought. BBD requires active loan management and competent custody. Higher reward, more responsibility.

Tax law can change. Stepped-up basis at death has been targeted for elimination multiple times. The strategy still works without it (deferral alone is huge) but the tax-wipeout benefit isn't guaranteed across decades.